The Fourth Industrial Revolution and Jamaica

Areas such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing, bioinformatics and nanotechnology are evolving at breath-taking speed, changing perceptions as to what is possible. Molecular engineering is producing materials with previously impossible combinations of lightness, strength, flexibility and other properties, which will allow the development of ultra-light, energy-efficient and safe vehicles. Research in the biological sciences is leading to genetically-specific pharmaceuticals, cures for genetic diseases, advanced bio-materials and biofuels, entirely new sources of protein, and genetically-enhanced plants and animals. Artificial intelligence is now close, by some estimates, to the point at which it will surpass human intelligence and capabilities and take over the tasks of steering the process of technological innovation, managing the economy, organizing logistics, operating factories, schools, universities and hospitals, and fighting wars.

These innovations are projected to increase the size of the global economy from US$115 trillion to US$150 trillion by 2035 then to US$200 trillion by 2050. The Fourth Industrial Revolution is therefore expected to generate stupendous economic gains. The challengefor governments will be to manage the displacement of much of the existing workforce and to ensure a reasonable distribution of the benefits of change, as the alternative could be social decay and violence.

The main sources of semi-skilled employment in Jamaica are in sectors such as construction, tourism and local transport, all which will be transformed by new technologies. Modular assembly and 3-D printers will reduce the amount of labour required for manufacturing and construction, AI will take over most tourism back-office functions, and autonomous vehicles will not require drivers.

Skilled jobs are also likely to be disrupted, as many government, administrative, accounting and call-centre jobs could be delivered more cost-effectively by AI, along with many of the support tasks in sectors such as law, medicine, banking, trading, teaching and research. Some colleges in the USA are already in financial crisis because they cannot compete with free online courses, and traditional banks, financial service providers and realtors could be replaced by Agentic AI that knows its clients and their preferences; can manage capital, make investment decisions and search markets for the best options and prices.

Estimates of the number of jobs that could be displaced or added by AI vary widely between studies, from a global net loss of 2 billion to a net gain of 375 million by 2030. The reason why these estimates vary so widely is that the current wave of innovation is going to overthrow so many existing technologies, business models and jobs that it is impossible to predict the outcome, although it is clear that there will be an avalanche of social and economic consequences. 

Although many old jobs will be destroyed, many new jobs will be created. Most of them will involve finding new ways to add value, as basic technical tasks become automated. Realtors that find their margins on conveyancing properties squeezed in transparent markets will be able to refocus their roles and develop new property management and concierge services. The unbundling of intermediation functions in banking services will give rise to new specialist providers as well as empowering individual users.

The greatest challenge, however, will be for low and semi-skilled workers, which includes most of the 60 percent of Jamaica’s workforce with little formal training. This group will be particularly vulnerable to disruptive change.. It will be important to ensure that large numbers of people are not displaced from work permanently, as economic participation is a major determinant of income, social standing and self-respect, and the best guarantor of social stability.

Governments of small island developing states, most of whom are already facing a range of challenges, will now need to find strategies for navigating through these profound changes in labour markets. But how can Jamaica map out a way forward when technological developments are happening so quickly that plans may become obsolete before they have been implemented? For example, many countries have invested in encouraging people to learn coding, but it has been widely predicted that almost all coding will be done by AI in future. So what will people do to earn a living? This challenge makes it essential to rethink the entire purpose of work and employment, training and education.

As more and more technical skills are automated, future employment is more likely to require problem-solving ability, creativity and emotional intelligence. It will be necessary to reorient Jamaica’s systems of education and training in order to develop these skills, as well as building the infrastructure needed to compete in the future. This too will require some new thinking. Several US technology corporations have already taken over part of the role of traditional universities, as they prefer their employees to be less theoretical and more focused on task-oriented team building and problem-solving. Other countries, such as Germany and the UK, have hybrid models of industry-university partnership withinternships, industrial experience placements, Engineering Doctorates sponsored by corporations (where the student pursues a research project that will solve problems or create new products for the firm) and teaching modules delivered by successful corporate innovators as well as in-house ‘colleges’ operated by large corporations. It is likely that these hybrid arrangements and partnerships will increasingly become the norm, initially in technologically-driven areas, to make learning outcomes more relevant to future labour market requirements.

An early adoption of this approach would help Jamaica to transition into a world in which production and manufacturing, logistics, finance, marketing and management, security, planning and government are all part of an integrated digital economy, which means that most members of the workforce will also need to be knowledge workers, capable of adding value with their relevant expertise, critical thinking and interpersonal skills, and committed to life-long learning.

The transition will also require some rethinking of the role of Government and institutions. In situations where core technologies are evolving at incredible speed, Government plans can rapidly become redundant. A new model of decisive, flexible and agile planning and implementation will be essential if countries like Jamaica are not to be left behind.

It is important to aim for prosperity and growth, rather than merely trying to survive. Success will depend on Jamaica’s ability to attract the kind of investment that will lead to the development of the dense clusters and knowledge networks that can sustain high rates of innovation. Jamaica will need to build out the new infrastructure required to support next-generation economic activities, including rapidly scalable ICT infrastructure, smart roads and multi-modal transport links; with fast, efficient connections to logistics hubs, sea and airports. It is also important that the public sector is reformed and streamlined, that there is continuity in the economic and educational policies applied by successive administrations, that the country takes all necessary measures to reduce the level of corruption and violence, and that the financial sector acquires a reputation for unyielding probity so that there is no doubt about the quality of governance.

This would allow Jamaica to seize the opportunities in the Fourth Industrial Revolution to finally escape its entrenched pattern of low-growth and become an economic dynamo. This will require ambition, focus, strong planning, shrewd management, and most of all on the courage to make tough decisions about uncertain futures.