Jamaican Economy Panel Discussion One – Recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic

Often, after such a large downturn, a fast recovery can be expected. Forecasters (IMF, ECLAC, EIU, BoJ) do not, however, agree whether the recovery will even take place during 2022 or how much of a rebound can be expected.

The panelists of the JEP were asked when they estimate the economy to return to its pre-COVID level and the average answer was 2024, though with much uncertainty. The panelists have doubts about the structural deficiencies of the Jamaican economy, which make it hard to believe that it can grow any faster than it did before the crisis. Furthermore, the aftermath of COVID-19 will continue to hamper sectors such as tourism and entertainment for the next few years.

The panelists were more positive about the way the Government of Jamaica dealt with the crisis. Only a small minority had a negative opinion, and half the respondents believed government policy was mostly or totally appropriate. The panelists pointed out that the country’s delicate fiscal situation was a pre-existing condition making it much harder to design adequate policies.

Asked about recommendations for further policies, the panelists overwhelmingly support further investment in the Jamaican economy, by supporting investment in infrastructure, Micro, Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (MSMEs) and the like. They also showed clear support for expanding social spending, for example through the expansion of PATH benefits.

Many of the panelists focused on the structural weaknesses, such as low productivity growth, a need for further digitalization and energy infrastructure as some of the preferred areas where they would like to see the Government of Jamaica invest more.

For a detailed description of the results of this month’s JEP survey, CLICK HERE.